Shaft Sinkers
Artwork by Joan Cundall-Allen

Forecasts

Demand, Supply, Price

Our intimate knowledge of the supply of metals particularly from South African producers of PGMs, combined with our track record of forecasting demand in various sectors, flows through to our in-house developed algorithm that predicts PGM and gold prices with a greater degree of accuracy than most forecasters as shown, for example, by our track record as all-time joint best forecaster of the London Bullion Market Association (LMBA) precious metals survey (LBMA link).

In PGMs, we have developed an integrated forecasting system based on our projected sales of vehicles to 2040. These sales are split into various types of vehicles gaining or losing market share to meet forthcoming emissions legislation in different regions of the World, offset by thrifting or substitution (by another PGM metal) and building up to the next legislative emissions hurdle (which appear to coming round every 4 years).

Cars in the race for market share are gasoline, diesel, hybrid, fuel cell and electric. We have very clear views as to which vehicle will be the winner or loser over the next 20 years based on our own analysis and tempered by our widespread contacts in the business.

Our integrated model generates demand and supply balances which, together with another dependent variable, are used in the algorithm to forecast prices over the next 20 years.

These forecasts are updated continuously as new vectors emerge: Geopolitical issues, the US control of much of the World’s oil reserves, the US Critical Minerals list, Chinese demand for PGMs for its Hydrogen economy, AI data demand pressures on HDD storage and effect on ruthenium and platinum demand, climate change laws and the success of the Hybrid cars benefitting both the Battery- and ICE-powered motors, and their effect on demand and supply of PGMs. Gold is more difficult to forecast as there are variably weighted vectors which dominate the price at different times though the long term trend is less difficult to forecast. Below is a 30 year price chart of the London Bullion Market gold price PM fix.

Click here to access a 30 year price chart of the London Bullion Market Gold Price PM fix.

We have expertise in the following metals:

Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium, Iridium, Ruthenium (PGMs)

Vanadium, Manganese, Cobalt, Nickel, Copper (Bulk Metals)